2022 Red Wave Could Sweep Governor’s Races, Too

So far, talk of a possible “red wave” has mostly focused on implications for Congress, as the entire House and a third of the Senate are up for reelection. But a red wave could sweep governor’s races as well, giving the GOP power in a host of competitive states. The recent historical precedents are clear. Democrats gained six net governorships in 2006 and seven in 2018 (the midterms after President George W. Bush’s reelection and President Donald Trump’s election), while Republicans gained six in 2010 and two in 2014 (the two midterms after President Barack Obama’s election and reelection).

Democrats do enter the cycle with a thumb on the scales: There are two very blue states in which very popular moderate (and anti-Trump) Republicans are stepping down and will very likely be replaced by Democrats: Maryland and Massachusetts. And there is already one anomalous Democratic governor in a deep red state: Kansas governor Laura Kelly. She won’t have the benefit of facing extremist Kris Kobach this time around, as state Attorney General Derek Schmidt has already cleared the GOP field. But Kelly has reasonably good job-approval numbers and is holding her own in early polls, so her race will be a good test of the power of the national environment.